Ung Dung Xac Suat Thong Ke Trong Ca Cuoc Tai F168 – Tu Ly Thuyet Den Loi Nhuan Thuc Te

Nhieu nguoi coi giai tri truc tuyen la mot tro choi may rui thuan tuy, nhung doi voi cac cao thu tai f168 vip , do la mot bai toan ve xac suat. Viec hieu va ung dung cac dinh luat toan hoc vao dat cuoc khong giup ban thang 100% trong moi van, nhung se giup ban co loi nhuan trong dai han. Bai viet nay se phan tich cac khai niem toan hoc cot loi ma ban co the ap dung ngay tai cac sanh choi cua F168.

1. Dinh luat so lon (Law of Large Numbers) va ung dung

Dinh luat nay phat bieu rang khi so luong thu nghiem cang lon, ket qua thuc te se cang tien gan den gia tri ky vong (xac suat ly thuyet).

• Ung dung tai F168: Neu ban choi Baccarat, dung qua lo lang ve mot chuoi thua 3-4 van. Theo dinh luat so lon, ty le Banker va Player se dan can bang ve muc xap xi 50-50 sau hang nghin van. Chien thuat o day la khong bao gio don von vao mot vai van cuoc don le ma phai chia nho von de "song sot" du lau cho den khi xac suat tro ve dung quy dao cua no.

2. Khai niem Gia tri ky vong (Expected Value - EV)

EV la con so cho ban biet trung binh ban se thang hoac thua bao nhieu tien sau moi lan dat cuoc.

• EV duong (+EV): Nhung keo cuoc mang lai loi nhuan tiem nang lon hon rui ro. Tai F168, viec tim kiem +EV thuong xuat hien o cac keo rung bong da khi ty le thuong tang cao o cuoi tran, hoac khi ban tan dung cac chuong trinh khuyen mai nap tien de gia tang ngan sach ban dau.


• EV am (-EV): Cac cua cuoc co ty le thang cuc thap nhung thuong cao (nhu cuoc Hoa trong Baccarat). Nguoi choi chuyen nghiep tai F168 luon han che toi da cac lua chon -EV de bao toan dong tien.

3. Quan tri rui ro bang tieu chuan Kelly (Kelly Criterion)

Day la cong thuc toan hoc giup ban xac dinh so tien dat cuoc toi uu dua tren loi the cua ban.

• Cong thuc don gian: $f^* = (bp - q) / b$
  
  
  
  
  • Trong do: $f^*$ la ty le von nen cuoc, $b$ la ty le cuoc, $p$ la xac suat thang, $q$ la xac suat thua.
  
  
  
  


• Tai sao nen dung tai F168? Kelly giup ban tranh duoc tinh trang chay tai khoan khi gap chuoi thua va bung no loi nhuan khi gap chuoi thang. Thay vi cuoc deu tay, viec dieu chinh theo Kelly giup ban toi uu hoa su tang truong cua ngan sach.

4. Nhan dien "Bien dong" (Variance)

Bien dong la su sai lech ngan han so voi ket qua du kien. Tai F168, ban co the gap mot ngay thang lon du choi chua tot, hoac mot ngay thua dam du da phan tich ky. Nguoi choi co tu duy toan hoc se coi bien dong la mot phan tat yeu va giu tam ly on dinh, khong de cac ket qua ngan han lam xao tron chien thuat dai han da de ra.

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